Seven new swing state polls released today all came to the same conclusion. President Obama has at least a four point lead in Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Let’s start with the states that Obama carried in 2008 that the Romney campaign is hoping to flip in 2012. Despite the Romney campaign’s claims that Wisconsin is in play, a new We Ask America poll became the second one in a week to show the president holding a double digit lead in the state. Obama leads Romney, 52.5%-41%, and Democratic Senate candidate Tammy Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson, 51%-41%. Wisconsin Independents are currently supporting Obama over Romney, 50%-37%.
In Iowa, an American Research Group poll shows Obama leading Romney 51%-44%. The state’s Independent voters are split 47%/47%, but Obama has a 17 point lead with women (56%-39%), and the president leads 52%-43% with those over age 50. Obama also leads Romney among white voters, 49%-47%. A new PPP poll of Colorado finds a similar story. The president is leading Mitt Romney, 51%-45%. Obama leads with men, 51%-46%, and is holding a small lead with white voters, 48%-47%. Colorado is a state where Romney’s 47% comments have done damage. Thirty eight percent of those who heard the comments said they they were less likely to vote for Romney. Only 27% saw his comments as a positive thing.
An American Research Group survey of Nevada found Obama opening up a 7 point lead over Romney, 51%-44%. While Romney leads with Nevada Independents (53%-41%), he trails Obama with men (49%-46%), women (52%-43%), and voters 50 and older (51%-42%). A new poll by Republican pollster Rassmussen shows why Mitt Romney has bailed on Michigan. President Obama now leads in the state, 54%-42%.
New polls of North Carolina and Florida reveal the president opening up leads in two states that have been dead heats all year. A new Civitas poll found that Obama leads Romney 49%-45% in North Carolina. Obama has a seven point lead over Romney with definite voters in the state, 43%-36%. An American Research Group survey of Florida found Obama leading Romney, 50%-45%. Romney leads with white voters (55%-41%), and men (50%-46%), but the candidates are virtually tied with voters over age 50 (Romney 49%/47%), and Independents (Romney 48%/47%). Obama holds leads with younger voters (52%-43%) and women (53%-42%).
All of the polls together paint a picture of an election that is starting to crystallize. Mitt Romney’s remarks about the 47% have hurt him in swing states, and more importantly the Republican has not been able to do anything since the Democratic convention to derail Obama’s growing momentum. Romney is down to hoping that he can force a momentum shifting moment at the first presidential debate. The results of the polls illustrate the very real possibility that perception that Romney is losing is starting to become fact in the minds of many voters.
This could be the perception through which voters view the debates. Nate Silver pointed out that contrary to what the Romney campaign is suggesting, if the incumbent is leading in late September, the home stretch tends to add support to his candidacy. Romney is going to have change the momentum either through his own campaign, or hope that Obama makes a major error.
These Obama leads aren’t a post convention bounce. They have become the new reality.
However, in electoral politics the reality of polling trends is only fully realized when people show up to vote.