A little more than week before Sarah Palin’s tea party event in Iowa, a new Pew poll has found that 67% of voters would never vote for Palin.
The Pew poll asked voters which Republican candidates they were most likely to vote for. Mitt Romney was the leader with those who knew him with 54% of those asked saying that they would (16%) or there was some chance (38%) that he would get their vote. Rick Perry was second at 47%, but an equal 47% said there was no chance that they would support the Texas governor. Ron Paul (42%) and Michele Bachmann (39%) both got lesser support.
Sarah Palin has the highest name recognition of any of the Republicans (97%), but only 13% of those polled said that there was a good chance that they would vote for her, and 19% said that there was some chance that they would support her. (That 19% is the lowest number in the entire GOP field. For the sake of contrast 25% said that there is some chance that they could support Jon Huntsman, and 23% said they might be able to support Newt Gingrich).
Among only registered Republican voters, and Republican leaning Independents 24% said that there was a good chance that they would support Sarah Palin, and 34% said there was some chance. However, 41% of REPUBLICANS and Republican leaners said that there was no chance that they would support Sarah Palin. In contrast, only 17 Republican voters said that there was no chance they would support Rick Perry, and only 21% said there was no chance that they would support Mitt Romney. Sarah Palin’s 58% possible support is 19 points behind Perry, and 17 points behind Mitt Romney.
In short, Palin has virtually no chance of winning the nomination. She has over three times more Republicans who refuse to support her than will vote for her. A 2012 run by Sarah Palin would be a dead end. It is fast track ticket to failed presidential candidate oblivion.
Palin is doing all the right things to keep the speculation alive. She went to the Iowa State Fair. She released a campaign like video of her Iowa trip. She has played coy on Fox News and continued her feud with Karl Rove. In the end, all of these gestures mean nothing because 67% of the American people will never vote for her.
As her September 3rd gig in Iowa approaches, many in the media will be sucked in by the slow news holiday weekend and cover the will she or won’t she question with undeserving seriousness. The truth is that it doesn’t matter whether she does or doesn’t.
America has made the decision for her, and if Sarah Palin can’t take a hint, voters will deliver their rebuke of her personally at the polls in 2012.