A new Gallup poll finds that President Obama’s approval has reached 53% which is a 12 point improvement in the past month.
According to Gallup, Obama’s job approval rating climbed 7 points in a week from 46%-53%, overall his approval rating has reached its highest level since February 12-14, 2010. In the past three days, the President’s approval rating has been over 50% each day. This is all a huge turnaround from mid-April when Obama’s job approval rating sunk to an all-time low of 41%.
There are several possible reasons why Obama’s job approval ratings are going up right now. It is possible that a stream of positive economic data is improving the perception of this president’s job performance. The President’s trip to Europe is a possible factor in his recent bounce, but as we saw in the case of George W. Bush overseas trips have their limits. Even a trip abroad can’t help an unpopular president.
Why is Obama’s popularity increasing so much?
My personal opinion is that Obama is starting to benefit from a number of related factors. An improving economy, the Republicans implosion over the Ryan budget and their attempt to privatize Medicare, and I think that the American perception of this president changed after the death of Osama Bin Laden.
The right wing media has been doing their best to smear Obama’s European trip as a cross between an apology tour and a bar crawl, but they have had little success in halting the growing wave of presidential momentum. It is becoming harder to deny that Obama has gained momentum over the past 6 weeks. His approval numbers are up virtually across the board.
There is more happening here than a Bin Laden bounce. Obama’s approval is also up on issues as diverse as immigration and the economy. A look beneath the basic job approval numbers reveals a president that is still personally popular. A majority of Americans like Obama, and they already had rated his presidency fairly well. We are long way away from Election Day 2012, but the numbers are moving in the right direction for Obama.
No modern president has ever lost a reelection campaign with a job approval rating over 50%. The magic number for incumbent presidents is 48%. As Gallup pointed out, at 48% the odds of an incumbent president being reelected are greater than 50/50.
As long as Obama’s job approval ratings hover around the 50%, he stands a good chance of winning a second term.
Obama has recovered from an at times bumpy 2010, and if his poll numbers hold, four more years might be a reality for President Barack Obama.