With high profile contenders dropping out of the GOP race, lesser known candidates are feeling frisky. Contenders like Godfather Pizza man Herman Cain and former Governor Tim Pawlenty are not well known at all and that could mean trouble for them in the very near future if they don’t catch fire soon. This is a lot easier to do today with YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other sources of media than it was in the old days of shaking hands and kissing babies.
The front runner as of May 18th, 2011 according to Suffolk University poll,
Mitt Romney has become the clear front-runner among Republican primary voters nationwide. The former governor found support from 20 percent of all likely GOP primary voters. Among voters of all parties, Romney was the closest of the Republican challengers tested to catching President Barack Obama (Obama 46 percent vs. Romney 43 percent).
Amazingly Sarah Palin beats Gingrich by 3 points. Palin received 12% and is in second place to Newt’s 9% which pushes him to third place amongst GOP primary voters. Romney has a tough time defending his Massachusetts mandate which will become a lightning rod for all the other Republican contenders.
The biggest factor will be the tea party. They will not support Romney for the GOP ticket and if working class people were smart, which they are, they will not support Romney either. Given our terrible outsourcing problem, I don’t understand how America can handle an outsourcing president in the White House.
Unfortunately, many in the GOP are ignorant of the fact that this is his history or they are more concerned about winning the White House than they are about winning our future through manufacturing.
Also according to this poll 20% are still up for grabs. If Gingrich or Tim Pawlenty were smart they would focus on the evangelical vote, who may be looking for another Huckabee, given Romney’s Mormon faith. A serious contender for the evangelical vote would be Michele Bachmann, although at this point she only receives about 4% of the potential primary support.
Bachmann could be the real deal breaker for the Romney lead. She is the head of the Tea Party caucus. She hasn’t officially declared her candidacy, but there are major rumors out there that she may declare in June.
A Bachmann campaign will strip a lot of votes from Romney, I think more than Tim Pawlenty or Gingrich. She has the potential to create a firestorm, barn burner campaign. The media loves to cover her. She knows this and may use that to her benefit.
Also given Gingrich’s current flip flopping and willingness to attack the GOP budget to privatize Medicare, he may bow out early giving Romney another big bump in the polls because both are Republican insiders, not outsiders like Bachmann, Pawlenty, Cain and others. All of Gingrich’s supporters will stay with the insider, no matter what.
Regardless, at this point in time Mitt is in the lead by a comfortable margin and he definitely has the financial backing as we witnessed by the 10 million dollars his camp raised in one day while in Vegas.
If Romney wins the nomination it will also be a litmus test for the tea party. The question is will the tea party stay home on Romney during the general election based on his “big government” mandates in Massachusetts?