A new Fox News Poll released today found that President Obama would solidly defeat Donald Trump in a potential 2012 showdown. Obama currently leads Trump 53%-34%. Obama leads Trump among Independents 50%-31%, and Trump only leads Obama with Republicans, Tea Partiers, and conservatives.
The one thing that jumps out in the new Fox News Poll is that while the right may have hooked on to Trump as their flavor of the month/next great hope to beat Obama, the rest of the country isn’t into it. Despite all of his birther related Fox News publicity, Trump has a very limited appeal for voters. Obama leads Trump overall 52%-34%. Obama leads Trump with Independents 50%-31%. Obama leads Trump with both men (50%-36%) and women (55%-32%). Obama leads Trump among both whites (44%-40%) and non-whites (76%-17%).
Obama leads big with both those who have a college degree (53%-34%) and those who don’t (52%-35%). The President leads among all age groups, even the senior citizen set that went for McCain in 2008 (48%-38%). Obama leads with both those making under $50,000 a year (61%-29%), and over $50,000 a year (47%-39%). The President crushes Trump with moderates (55%-17%), and strongly leads with Independents (50%-31%). Donald Trump only leads Obama among three interrelated groups, Republicans (62%-19%), Tea Partiers (70%-17%) and conservatives (52%-33%).
According to the poll, the overall race for the GOP nomination looks like a dead heat between Mike Huckabee (14%), Mitt Romney (12%), Donald Trump (11%), and Sarah Palin (10%). If Trump does enter the race he hurts Palin and Romney, and virtually pushes Newt Gingrich out. Donald Trump trails only Sarah Palin with Tea Partiers (16%-14%), but Huckabee, not Sarah Palin or Donald Trump is most popular candidate with female Republicans (16%-11% for both Huckabee and Palin).
65% of Americans said that they aren’t impressed with the potential 2012 Republican field, and 50% of Republicans also aren’t impressed with their choices. The Tea Party was the only group who said they were impressed with potential 2012 GOP roster.
A majority of Republicans are dreading the 2012 campaign (51%), and those over age 55 (56%), and those Republicans over age 65 (57%) are dreading it most of all.
The looming presence of the Obama Democrats can be seen in the fact 52% of non-whites, and 53% of moderates said that they were looking forward to the 2012 campaign. The Tea Party was the only Republican supporting group who had more respondents looking forward to 2012 than dreading it (49%-42%).
Simply put, Donald Trump can’t beat Obama. He would not only lose, but he would lose badly. I think the right’s infatuation with Donald Trump is a sign of their complete desperation. Supporters of the Republican Party are frantically looking everywhere for candidate who can mount a serious challenge to President Obama. Trump’s standing in the polls can be attributed this desperation and Fox News’ support of him.
Donald Trump would be humiliated by Obama in the general election, but what does it say about the strength of the potential 2012 GOP field when two of its top four candidates are a reality TV star, and a washed up quitter of a former governor who has managed to turn herself into the most hated politician in America?
The reason a majority of Republicans are dreading the 2012 campaign is that they can see the writing on the wall. Unless they find a miracle candidate, they are probably going to lose, and lose badly to Obama.
Donald Trump isn’t the answer. He is a novelty gimmick who is exploiting the Tea Party in order to whip publicity and ratings for “Celebrity Apprentice,” but if Trump did seriously decide to run, and he captured the nomination, his candidacy would be an epic disaster for the Republican Party.
If Republicans were smart they would’ve called Donald into the office, sat him down at the big conference table and told him, “you’re fired,” before he ever got started. Trump isn’t the Republican savior. Palin isn’t the Republican savior, and Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have already flopped before.
Republicans need to find themselves a better class of reality TV star to head the top of their ticket, because Donald Trump has no chance of beating Barack Obama.