Two new Marist polls of Virginia and Colorado were released today, and each poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain. In Colorado, Obama leads McCain 52%-43% with registered voters and 51%-45% with likely voters. In Virginia, Obama leads 49%-43% with registered voters and 51%-47% with likely voters.
In Colorado, 44% of those surveyed said that they already have cast their ballots. Obama’s lead with is mostly due to the early voters, when they are taken out of the numbers, the candidates are tied at 46% with likely voters. Independents are behind Obama in a big way in state. By a margin of 58%-35%, Independents are supporting Obama. Eighty four percent of those surveyed said that they are strongly committed to their candidate.
Eighty eight percent of Obama supporters and eighty four percent of the McCain supporters described themselves as firmly committed. Both candidates have positive approval numbers, Obama’s is 56%, and McCain’s is 51%. Joe Biden has a 51% positive rating, and Sarah Palin is still the least popular candidate in this race with a 46% positive rating.
In Virginia, the race is closer because Independents are supporting John McCain. Independents are favoring McCain 54%-42%. However Obama is offsetting some of this advantage, by picking up 11% of the Republican support in the state, compared to 6% of Democratic support for John McCain. Only 2% of registered voters who were polled said that they might change their minds before election.
Eighty five percent of registered voters said that they are firmly committed to their candidate. Eighty eight percent of Obama supporters and eighty two percent of McCain supporters describe themselves as firmly committed. Obama has a high positive rating of 61% compared to 54% for McCain. Joe Biden has a 53% positive rating, while Sarah Palin splits those surveyed, 47% positive, and 46% negative. However, Independents give Palin a 52% positive rating.
I think Colorado is likely to go to Obama, but McCain must have Virginia, and that race looks like a dead heat. There are positives in the numbers for both candidates. Like North Carolina and Florida, the results in Virginia will probably hinge on how well Obama gets his vote out. Without an influx of new Democrats, this is probably a 50/50 race. The built in advantage for Obama is in demographics, but he could win or lose the state depending on turnout.