Obama campaign manager David Plouffe released a memo today that pointed out that the early voting statistics in North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida and Iowa. 20% of all early voting Colorado Democrats had never voted in an election before, and have an almost 300,000 new voter advantage in North Carolina.
In North Carolina 56% of the early votes were cast by Democrats, compared to 48% in 2004. In Nevada 53% of the early votes cast have been Democratic compared to 32% Republican. This is an increase of 8% for the Democrats and 4% for the Republicans. In Iowa Democratic early voting is out pacing Republican 50%-29%. This mostly unchanged from 2004, when it was 48%-30%. In New Mexico, Democrats have cast 56% of the early votes so far compared to 33% for the Republicans. The numbers in 2004 favored the Democrats 50%-38%.
Early voting is fairly evenly split in Colorado where Democrats have cast 39% compared to 38% for the GOP. This is a huge shift from four years ago when Republicans cast 42% of the early votes compared to 34% for the Democrats. If Florida each party has 43% of the early voters. It was virtually the same in 2004 when Republicans cast 43% of the early votes compared to 42% for the Democrats.
People are energized for this election. In North Carolina, 18% of all early Democratic voters are new voters compared to 15% for the Republicans. In Nevada, 40% of the early voters are new or sporadic Democrats compared to 30% who are new or sporadic Republicans. In Iowa, 103,449 new Democrats compared to 73,725 new Republicans. So what does all of this mean? In very raw terms it is the first sign that the Democratic registration advantage is showing up at the polls in these states.
The caveat here is that we don’t know who these early voters are voting for. In states such as Colorado and Florida the early vote is an omen that the race could be close. However, it is a pretty safe guess that Obama is sprinting out to an advantage in states like New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina.
It is unlikely that large numbers of Democrats are voting early in these states to vote for McCain. This is the first small indicator of the potential Obama tidal wave that could be out there. It is numbers like these that have some Republicans already sounding defeated.