Poll: No Convention Bounce for McCain/Palin

Sep 08 2008 Published by under Featured News

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll has the presidential race has the presidential race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack dead tied at 48%. Even with Ralph Nader and Bob Barr factored into the race, Obama and McCain are still tied at 45%.

According to the poll, the 2008 presidential race has been a virtual tie for the last three weeks. The biggest lead that either candidate has had since the end of the end of the primaries has been eight points. Interestingly, the poll also revealed that there has been no Palin bounce for McCain. Fifty one percent of all men said that they would vote for McCain, and 52% of women said that they would vote for Obama.

I believe that Palin may have been able to give the McCain campaign a bounce; if they would have let her do some network appearances alone.
So far, both the CBS poll and the CNN poll have the race tied. You can throw out the worthless Gallup Daily poll, which both campaigns agree is trash this is why they never cite it. (For those of you who are interested in polling, the Gallup daily poll has some serious methodology issues, which is why it often differs from Gallup’s regular poll for this election).

These poll results demonstrate how pointless the political conventions have become. Sure, they give each campaign a week of free media, but with the Internet and 24 hour cable news, voters no longer have to depend on heavily choreographed events like the conventions to get to know their candidates. The only speeches that people watch are the acceptance speeches. I don’t think that the Palin selection is working out the way the McCain camp had hoped. They wanted Palin to sway women voters, and give them a huge bounce heading into the fall. Neither has happened.

The last two presidential elections have been so close that national polls should be taken with a serious grain of salt. This race is going to be decided in a series of swing states. The macro view of this campaign comes from the national polls, but it is the micro campaign on a state, and even local level, that will determine who the next president of the United States will be. This is a close race in a polarized nation, but after the results of the last two presidential elections, would anyone expect anything less?

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