Poll: Obama Leads McCain by 8 in Ohio

Jul 21 2008 Published by under Featured News

According to a new poll by Public Policy Polling released today, Barack Obama leads John McCain 48%-40% in the state of Ohio. Twelve percent of those surveyed were undecided.

As has become the trend in many of these state polls, Obama leads with women and African Americans, while McCain does best with men. There is quite a gender divide in the state as Obama leads with women 54%-34%, but McCain leads with men 48%-41% with 11% undecided.

McCain leads narrowly with white voters, 46%-42%, but Obama dominates with African Americans 91%-6%. Another sign of Obama doing really well in the Buckeye State is that he leads McCain with all age groups, except senior citizens. The age groups that I pay the most attention to in every state poll are voters age 30-45, these are the voters that were heavily split between Clinton and Obama during the Democratic primary, and this is a group that will likely determine the outcome in several swing states in the fall.

In Ohio, Obama leads McCain 48%-41% among voters age 30-45. The Democrat has a large lead with voters age 18-29, 59%-26%. He has a much smaller lead with voters age 46-65, 48%-43%, and McCain leads with seniors, 44%-40%. This continues a trend that has been visible in state polls throughout the country. McCain is having a hard time expanding his base beyond older, white, male voters.

In Ohio, as is also the case in Pennsylvania and Michigan, the economy is the critical issue. If McCain is to have any chance of winning the election, he needs to win Pennsylvania or Ohio and Michigan, and neither state looks good for him currently. Ohio is in a different mood than it was in 2004 because in the interim the state was rocked by a Republican political scandal. All things considered, Ohio should be ripe territory for Obama and his message of change. It should not be anywhere near as close as it was in 2004.

Full Poll Results in PDF

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