A new poll of the state of Virginia was released recently by Survey USA, and it reveals a tight race between Barack Obama and John McCain. Obama holds a slight two point lead, 49%-47%. Thus far, the state is starkly split along gender lines. McCain leads with men 58%-40% and Obama with women, 58%-36%.
Virginia voters are also divided by age. Voters under age 50 favor Obama, 55%-41%, while voters who are over 50 favor McCain by the same margin, 55%-41%. Surprisingly, Obama only leads with voters age 18-34, 51%-47. The Democrat’s big lead is with voters age 35-49 where he leads, 59%-37%. McCain leads with voters age 50-64, 53%-43%, and he has a big lead with voters over 65, 58%-37%.
McCain leads with white voters, 54%-41%, and Obama with African Americans, 74%-25%. McCain’s level of African American support is his highest level in any state measured so far. The trend of Hispanic voters favoring Obama continued. He leads McCain with Hispanic voters, 63%-37%. Unlike in other states, McCain has a slight lead among Independents, 49%-43%.
Interestingly, the poll also showed that Jim Webb would only add two points to Obama’s lead over McCain, no matter who the Republican chose as his running mate. An Obama/Webb ticket tops out at 49% in the state. Virginia has the look of a state that is split down the middle along the lines of age, race, and gender. We are starting to get our first glimpse of the states that could determine the 2008 election. It looks like Ohio and Florida might be out, and places like New Mexico and Virginia will be the states to watch.