A new Quinnipiac University poll of battleground states Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Minnesota released today shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in all four. Obama leads in Colorado 49%-44%, in Michigan 48%-42%, in Minnesota 54%-37%, and in Wisconsin 52%-39%.
In Colorado, women and Hispanic voters are behind Obama’s lead. Women support Obama by a margin of 53%-39%. Colorado Hispanic voters are leaving the GOP in droves. Obama leads with this group 62%-36%. I believe that this is directly related to the hard line stance of the Republican Party on immigration. Obama leads McCain among Independents 54%-39%. McCain leads with men 50%-45%, and white men 47%-46%. Obama leads with all age groups, but McCain leads with voters who do not have a college degree, 50%-42%.
In Michigan Obama’s coalition of support are women, African Americans, union households, Independents. Women are supporting the Democratic candidate by a margin of 52%-38%, and Independents favor Obama 46%-38. Obama dominates McCain with the state’s union households, 57%-32%. McCain has a narrow lead with men in the state, 46%-45%, and leads with white men 48%-42%. Obama leads with all age groups, and McCain leads among those without college degrees. Interestingly, Michigan voters listed the war, not the economy as their number one issue.
While in Minnesota, the big difference is that Obama leads with both men and women. Obama’s lead with men is 49%-42%, and with women 58%-32%. He also leads the Republican by 21 points with Independents, 54%-33%. Obama leads with all groups, including those who don’t have a college degree, where he leads 47%-42%. Obama’s strength in the state doesn’t seem to helping Al Franken’s Senate campaign. Franken trails Norm Coleman 51%-41%.
Wisconsin’s numbers are similar to Minnesota’s. Obama leads with both men and women in the state. He has his largest lead with male voters here, 51%-40%. He has a 16 point lead with women, 53%-37%. The Illinois Senator leads with white voters, 49%-42%, and Independent voters, 50%-37%. The Democrat leads among voters who don’t have a college degree, 47%-43%.
Judging from this poll and several other recent ones as well, McCain’s base of support is limited to men, specifically white men, while Obama’s base of support appears to be growing beyond women and African Americans. The difference between whether or not Obama has a single or double digit lead is the support of white men. Most surprising, is McCain’s inability to lead with older voters. If McCain doesn’t expand his base beyond white men, he is going to lose big in November.