A recent Survey USA poll of New Mexico finds a tight race in the state. Obama has a three point lead 49%-46%, but that is within the margin of error, so the race is a virtual tie. There is a big gender divide in the state, where McCain leads among men 60%-36%, and Obama leads with women, 62%-32%.
One of the interesting trends that have been visible in numerous state and national polls is the relatively low number of undecided voters. In New Mexico, only 5% of voters polled called themselves undecided. Voters age 35-49 will be the critical age group in the state. Among these voters, Obama leads 50%-48%. Obama leads by 13 points with voters 18-34 and by 7 points with voters 50-64. McCain leads by 8 points with voters over 65.
McCain leads with white voters, 53%-42%, but it seems that at least in New Mexico, the fear that Hispanic voters would not support Obama has not proven itself to be true. Obama leads with Hispanics 63%-34%. Obama has a 16 point lead with Independent voters in the state, 55%-39%. Obama also gets 29% of the state’s anti-abortion vote.
New Mexico was a critical swing state in 2004. George W. Bush carried the state 50%-49%, and it looks like 2008 will be another tight race. The race is currently statistically tied, and I suspect that this won’t change much before November. It is a little surprising that McCain isn’t doing better in the state, but the average age of residents in the state is 34.6 years old. This is why the 35-49 age group will probably be the demographic that decides the state.