Over the last few days Survey USA has done polls of swing states Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The polls not only matched up the two presidential candidates head to head, but also looked at different ticket combinations and how they matched up against each other. It should be no surprise that the most dominant ticket is Barack Obama and John Edwards.
In Ohio, Obama leads McCain 48%-39%. When the tickets are McCain/Huckabee, or McCain and Romney versus Obama/Edwards the Democrats lead 51%-38%. When the Democrats are matched up with a McCain/Lieberman ticket, they lead 50%-38%. If the GOP ticket is McCain/Pawlenty, Obama/Edwards leads 53%-35%. When the ticket is Obama/Sebelius, the race is either tied, or at most Democrats enjoy a seven point lead against McCain/Pawlenty. The combination of McCain/Huckabee leads Obama/Rendell and Obama /Hagel. If Obama chooses Ed Rendell or Chuck Hegel, his nine point lead vanishes, no matter who McCain’s running mate is.
In Pennsylvania, Obama leads McCain 48%-40%. Obama/Edwards leads McCain/Huckabee 50%-40%, and they leads McCain/Romney 52%-37%. Obama/Edwards lead McCain/Pawlenty 52%-35%, and McCain/Lieberman 50%-38%. PA Gov. Ed Rendell is the other candidate that wins in all matchups as Obama’s running mate. The problem is that Rendell costs Obama support against a McCain/Huckabee ticket, and only holds the existing lead, or adds a point or two in the others. Picking Rendell would not help Obama much in the state. All the other running mate combinations result in the race being close to even.
Overall in Virginia, Obama leads McCain 49%-42%. An Obama/Edwards ticket beats McCain and either Huckabee or Romney by 12 and 13 points respectively. Obama/Edwards also enjoy a double digit lead against all other Republican combinations. Ed Rendell and Chuck Hagel actually cause Obama to trail or are tied with any of the McCain combinations. Obama/Sebelius either has a small lead or is tied depending on the GOP ticket. If Obama wants to win Virginia, he probably should consider a white male Southerner, or one of the state’s favorite sons.
This is an odd election, because usually the running mate choice won’t make much difference in the polls. I believe that these polls show that if Obama picks well, he could have a gigantic November win. Voters love the combination of Obama/Edwards, but can Edwards be persuaded to run again? Edwards offers Obama the strongest swing state ticket, and Obama would be wise to avoid Ed Rendell. Rendell has had an approval rating of 50% or so in PA, and actually hurts Obama in other swing states.
You can read the full polls right here