Poll Update: Obama Leads Clinton by 4 in Oregon

May 19 2008 Published by under Featured News

What had looked it would be a laugher, has turned into a tight primary for Barack Obama in Oregon. Obama now leads Clinton 45%-41% with 8% undecided and 6% refusing to answer. Obama had in recent weeks maintained a steady double digit lead.

One thing that hasn’t changed for Obama in the state is that he remains very, very popular. Oregon Democrats gave him an approval rating of 73%. He was viewed unfavorably by only 15% of Democrats. When asked who they thought would be the next president of the United States, 59% of those surveyed said Obama, 11% said Clinton, 9% chose McCain, and 20% were undecided.

A majority of Oregon Democratic voters (52%) believe that Obama is more electable. A difference between Oregon Democrats and those in many other states is that they plan to support the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is. Fifty nine percent said that they would still vote for the Democratic nominee if their first choice lost.

I tend to discount the margin in this current poll because of Oregon’s unique voting procedure where all ballots are delivered by mail, and voters must either mail in or deliver their ballots to the Elections Division by Election Day. Obama’s margin will likely be much bigger due to the expected amount of early votes that are likely to have gone his way.

Some early Electoral College surveys have the state leaning Democratic, but after looking at these numbers, I think the state will be solidly for Obama in the fall. With Hillary Clinton concentrating most of her efforts in Kentucky, I think Obama will cruise to an easy Oregon win, and declare victory afterwards.

Poll numbers came from here.

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