A new Suffolk University poll of Kentucky Democrats reveals that Hillary Clinton holds a 26 point lead over Barack Obama. Clinton leads Obama 51%-25% with 6% for John Edwards, 5% uncommitted, and 11% undecided. While Obama has a 73% approval rating in Oregon, his rating is only 43% in Kentucky. This is similar to the 44% approval rating Obama had with West Virginia Democrats before that state’s primary.
In Kentucky, only 41% of Democrats think that Obama will be the next president. John McCain is second at 25%, Hillary Clinton is third at 13%, and 20% were undecided. Kentucky voters believed that Clinton is more electable against McCain than Obama by a margin of 46%-39%. Only 41% of Kentucky’s Democrats said that they would vote for the Party’s nominee no matter who that may be. Twenty eight percent of the state’s Democrats said that they would switch parties and vote McCain. Four percent said that they would vote for Ralph Nader, and 24% were undecided.
It is unusual to see two primaries held in May have such different and lopsided results. Much of this can be explained by the fact that the candidates have in essence split the two states. Clinton is spending the bulk of her time in Kentucky, while Obama has been concentrating on Oregon and general election swing states.
The reality for Democrats is that they probably won’t win states like West Virginia and Kentucky in the fall. These states aren’t really in play for November, so why not let Clinton have her moment in the sun? She has halted the personal attacks and negative campaigning against Obama. I think these numbers might really mean something if Obama would have tried to win Kentucky, but he didn’t so there is very little that should be read into either this poll, or the results tomorrow night.
Poll results came from here