A new Zogby poll released today revealed that very little has changed for both Democratic candidates in North Carolina and Indiana. In North Carolina Obama has a 16 point lead over Clinton 50%-34%, but in Indiana, the candidates are still deadlocked 42%-42% with 9% not sure.
In North Carolina, Obama leads with African Americans (73%-10%), men (57%-30%), and women (44%-37%), while Clinton leads with white voters 47%-37, but Obama leads with every age group except voters over 70. It is clear to see why Obama is heading for a big victory in the Tar Heel State.
Indiana is a much different story. Holding true to form, Obama leads among younger voters and Clinton with the older crowd. The key swing block could be middle aged votes (35-54). They currently favor Obama 48%-41. Obama leads in Northern Indiana, which is closer to Chicago, and Clinton leads in Southern Indiana which is closer to Ohio.
Much of the same dissatisfaction that we saw with Obama among Pennsylvania Clinton supporters is also present in Indiana, but the Obama supporters are now saying that they won’t vote for Clinton if she is the nominee. 20% of Democrats surveyed said in a Clinton-McCain matchup, they would vote for McCain. 21% of Democrats said that in a Obama-McCain matchup they would vote for McCain.
What this tells me is that the negative tone of the Democratic campaign is taking a toll on both candidates, while John McCain’s free pass is making him look attractive to many Democrats who have grown weary of the constant negativity in the Democratic race.
It is pretty clear that on Tuesday all eyes will be on Indiana. Obama will either finish Clinton off there, or this race will continue to drag down the Party.